“Is off the plan a good investment?”
I get asked that a lot.
My honest answer is: wrong question.
Off the plan isn’t good or bad. This apartment, from this developer, at this price, in this location, on this contract — that’s what’s good or bad.
So instead of a yes or no, I’ll give you a way to score it yourself.
It’s the same scoring system I use before I’d put a project in front of a client.
A good brochure is not a good investment
Every off-the-plan project looks fantastic on paper.
That’s the brochure’s job.
Your job is different. Your job is to find out what the brochure didn’t mention.
Here’s a test I like: cover up the renders and read only the facts — price, size, strata estimate, rent appraisal, developer history, completion date. Does it still look good?
If the answer changes once the pretty pictures disappear, that’s useful information.
How the scoring works
Go through 20 checks. For each one, give a mark:
- Green — there’s strong, independent evidence
- Investigate — you need more information
- Red flag — there’s a serious concern
The key word is independent. A developer’s rent projection is not independent evidence. Two appraisals from local property managers are.
Then count your greens:
| Greens | What it means |
|---|---|
| 16–20 | Worth investigating further |
| 11–15 | Important questions remain |
| 10 or fewer | Don’t proceed without substantial further investigation |
Notice what’s missing from that table: the word “buy.”
Even 20 greens only earns a closer look. Your solicitor, broker and accountant still need to look at it against your circumstances.
The scorecard
Print this, or copy it into a spreadsheet. One line per check.
Growth potential
| # | Check | Green looks like | Red flag looks like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long-term growth | Consistent growth over ~10 years | Pitch relies on one boom year |
| 2 | Supply & demand | Limited comparable stock coming | Several similar buildings finishing together |
| 3 | Demographics | Apartment suits who lives there | Designed for buyers who aren’t in the area |
| 4 | Gentrification | Funded, approved, dated projects | Press releases and promises |
| 5 | Future development | Amenity coming, little competing stock | Towers approved next door |
| 6 | Economy | Diverse, growing employment | One-employer town |
| 7 | Resale appeal | Clear reason to choose it later | “It’s cheaper than the others” |
Developer and construction
| # | Check | Green looks like | Red flag looks like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Developer | Completed comparable buildings you can visit | No track record or a trail of failed entities |
| 9 | Builder | Licensed, solid history | Builder not yet confirmed |
| 10 | Timeline | Clear start date and conditions | Dates keep moving, nobody can explain why |
| 11 | Design | Usable layout, real furniture fits | Tiny furniture on the floor plan |
| 12 | Environment | Low flood/hazard risk, insurable | Risk waved away without evidence |
Cashflow and real costs
| # | Check | Green looks like | Red flag looks like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rental yield | Independent appraisals support the rent | Only the developer’s number |
| 14 | Strata | Budget realistic for the facilities | Suspiciously low fees |
| 15 | Tax | Stacks up before any tax benefit | Only works because of deductions |
| 16 | Vacancy | Stable or falling vacancies | Rising vacancies plus incoming supply |
| 17 | Owner-occupiers | Broad owner-occupier appeal | Small, identical, rental-marketed units |
Location, lifestyle and timing
| # | Check | Green looks like | Red flag looks like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | View | Protected by what can legally be built | Paying a premium for an unprotected view |
| 19 | Amenities | Genuinely walkable | “Close to everything” — by car |
| 20 | Market cycle | Fair price, no rush | FOMO and “prices can only go up” |
The five checks people skip
In my experience, buyers rarely get burned on the kitchen benchtop. They get burned on the boring stuff.
Here are the ones I see skipped most.
Supply (check 2)
People check the suburb. They forget to check the street.
If three near-identical buildings complete in the same quarter, they’re all chasing the same tenants and, later, the same buyers.
Developer and builder (checks 8 and 9)
Display suites are lovely. They are also not buildings.
Go and stand in front of something the developer finished five years ago. Look at the common areas. Talk to an owner if you can.
In Queensland, you can check a builder’s licence on the QBCC website. It takes a few minutes.
Timeline and the contract (check 10)
A launch date is not a start date.
And in Queensland, the 2023 reforms limiting when a developer can use a sunset clause to terminate apply to off-the-plan land contracts — not most apartments in community titles schemes. (Queensland Government) Lawyers are still testing these clauses in court — for example, a 2026 Supreme Court decision involving a Gold Coast tower found a developer couldn’t rely on its own delay to terminate. (Rose Litigation Lawyers)
That’s a job for your solicitor, not your gut.
Strata (check 14)
Facilities cost money.
If the building has a pool, gym, lifts and landscaped gardens, and the strata estimate looks like a small studio walk-up, ask how.
Settlement value (checks 1, 2 and 20)
Here’s one that catches people out. When the building finishes, your lender will typically value the apartment again. If it values lower than your contract price, you may need to cover the gap. (Greenhalgh Pickard)
Strong long-term growth, sensible supply and not overpaying at the peak all help. None of them remove the risk. Talk to your broker about what that would mean for you.
A worked example (illustrative only)
Let’s say you score a hypothetical project:
- Growth: 5 green, 2 investigate
- Developer & construction: 3 green, 1 investigate, 1 red (builder not confirmed)
- Cashflow: 3 green, 2 investigate (strata looks low, only one rent appraisal)
- Location & timing: 3 green
That’s 14 greens. “Important questions remain.”
So what do you do? You don’t panic. You don’t sign either.
You ask: who is the builder, and when will they be confirmed? Can I see the body corporate budget assumptions? Can I get a second independent rent appraisal?
Answer those well, and you might move to 17. Answer them badly, and you’ve saved yourself a very expensive lesson.
Either way, you win.
What a high score doesn’t tell you
A 20/20 apartment can still be wrong for you.
The checklist looks at the property. It doesn’t know your income, your borrowing capacity, your other commitments or your goals. That’s what your broker, accountant and solicitor are for.
I’m a licensed real estate agent. I’ll tell you what I think of a building. I won’t tell you how to structure your finances.
Frequently asked questions
Is off the plan a good investment in Australia?
It depends on the specific project and your circumstances. Use a consistent checklist and get independent professional advice rather than relying on the marketing.
How many checks should a good off-the-plan apartment pass?
In my scoring system, 16–20 green marks means it’s worth investigating further. Fewer than that means there are questions to answer first.
What counts as “independent evidence”?
Information that doesn’t come from the people selling the property — for example, rent appraisals from local property managers, council planning records, settled sales data and licence searches.
What’s the biggest red flag?
There isn’t just one, but an investment that only works because of tax deductions, a single boom year or urgency is worth slowing down on.
Can you score a project for me?
I’m happy to talk through how I’d look at a project on a discovery call. It’s general guidance about the property, not financial advice.
Get the free Winning Edge Playbook
The Playbook has the full 20-point checklist with what to check, why it matters, the warning signs and where to find the data.
Download the free Winning Edge Playbook →
Score your next project before you sign anything.
No pressure. Just clarity.
— Ian Marsh, Winning Edge Real Estate
FULL DISCLOSURE: If you buy a project I recommend, the developer pays me a commission. Yep, I get paid. Shocking, I know.
But most projects never make it past my 20-point check, so you only ever see a select few. Forty years of reputation is worth more than one dodgy tower with a rooftop pizza oven.
DISCLAIMER: I’m a licensed real estate agent, not a financial advisor. My only qualifications are investing since 19, building a multi-million-dollar portfolio, and founding five multi-million-dollar companies. Apart from that… I know nothing. 😉 Do your own research and get independent financial advice.
No pressure. Just clarity.